The 13-week cash plan: breaking the next three months into weeks

Kerem Bey the printer's good months

The rules described in this lesson are those of Turkish law.

Kerem Bey's print shop works with six people. In October 2026 business is good: roughly 250,000 lira comes in every week. A big catalogue job has also come in from a supermarket chain. He will buy the paper for cash in the second week of November, and the customer will pay at the start of January.

Looking month by month, Kerem Bey feels comfortable: "The cash box is growing in October, and it will grow in November too." His mali müşavir (accountant) makes a suggestion: "Let's write out the next 13 weeks one by one."

You built a one-month calendar day by day in the lesson Cash flow calendar. In this lesson we stretch the same logic over three months, but we take the week as the unit, not the day.

Why 13 weeks?

Think of a hairdresser's appointment book. If it showed only today, the hairdresser would not know whether tomorrow morning is empty or full. If it showed a whole year at once, the lines would lose their meaning. A hairdresser keeps the book open a few weeks ahead and sees both the gaps and the busy days in advance.

13 weeks is roughly three months. This period shows the following:

• It shows each month's recurring payments three times side by side: salaries, rent, VAT, the muhtasar return, SGK.
• It catches the payments that come once every three months. Provisional tax (geçici vergi) is one of them; for the July–September 2026 period the last day is 17 November 2026.
• It shows the dip within the month. A squeeze that the monthly total hides comes out in the weekly table.

The five lines of the plan

1. Opening cash. What is really in the cash box and the bank today? Write it from your bank statement, not from a guess. A credit card limit or an unused loan does not go on this line.
2. Money in. First write the items with a fixed date: cheques falling due, collections under contract. Then the estimate of cash sales: the weekly average of the last few months, rounded down a little.
3. Money out. Fixed costs (salaries, rent, SGK, taxes, loan instalments), supplier payments and large one-off items.
4. End-of-week cash. The previous week's balance, plus money in, minus money out.
5. The lowest week. Find the smallest figure in the table and mark it. That is the real answer of the plan.

Take the tax days from the lesson A month's calendar. There are days in this period that need attention. The last day for September VAT is 28 October 2026: it is the eve of Republic Day and the afternoon is a holiday, but the last day does not move; unless GİB announces an extension, that day stands. Because 31 October falls on a Saturday, the last day for September's SGK premium becomes 2 November 2026; because 28 November falls on a Saturday, the last day for October VAT becomes 30 November 2026.

Kerem Bey's table

The figures are round and only an example. "Money in" is 250,000 lira every week; the holiday week is a little less. "Money out" includes 110,000 lira of supplier and general costs every week, plus that week's special items on top.

Opening cash is 400,000 lira. At the end of the three months the cash box rises to 540,000 lira; Kerem Bey is not wrong to say "it's growing". But two weeks show a negative balance. These are the end-of-month weeks: salaries, rent, VAT and SGK all land in the same week.

Why is the VAT higher in week twelve? The catalogue is delivered in November and its invoice is issued in November. VAT does not wait for the money; it arises on delivery. Even though the money will come in January, November's VAT is paid on 28 December. We come back to this in the next lesson.

What do you do when you see the dip?

Kerem Bey has two months in hand. He talks about two things:

• With the paper supplier: paying half of the 300,000 lira now and half 45 days later.
• With the catalogue customer: a 20% advance when the job starts, that is, 90,000 lira.

When the table is recalculated, week 8 rises to 230,000 lira and week 12 to 40,000 lira. There are no negative weeks left. But 40,000 lira will not cover a machine breakdown. We work out how much of a cash reserve (kenar parası) you need to keep in the last lesson of this module.

This is the value of seeing it in advance. A conversation with the paper supplier six weeks ahead goes smoothly. The same conversation on payment day is harder.

The plan moves forward one week every Monday

A 13-week plan is not made once and put in a drawer. Every Monday:

1. Write the real figures for the week that has ended and compare them with the estimate.
2. Take that week off the table and add a new 13th week at the end.
3. Look at the lowest week again.

Setting up the first table takes an hour or two; in the following weeks the job comes down to fifteen minutes. Every few weeks you also learn where your estimates went off. One customer's payment always comes a few days late, one cost always turns out a little higher. Over time the plan adjusts to your business.

Under simplified taxation and in a company

If you are under simplified taxation (basit usul), you have no VAT or provisional tax lines; if you have employees, the muhtasar and SGK lines are still there, and the rest of the plan is the same. If you have a sole proprietorship, your own Bağ-Kur premium (each month's, by the end of the following month) and the money you take home also go on the money-out side. If you have a company, the money the partners take from the company goes on the money-out side. The rules for money taken out of the company are in the lesson Paying yourself a salary.